There are parts of a city I knew twenty or thirty years ago that work in a completely different way today.
When I walk back through some of them, I try not to focus only on the new buildings, land prices or full restaurants.
I observe something that, to me, matters much more:
Who lives there now, who arrives every day, and how has the way they live changed?
Where there used to be a house with a family of four or five, today there can be a building with dozens of 40, 50 or 60 sqm apartments.
And the profile of who lives there has also changed:
- young professionals
- people living alone
- couples without children
- households with pets
- people who traded square meters for proximity and time.
That shift starts to be felt quickly across the whole area.
There are fewer families sitting for hours around lunch and more people eating between meetings.
More people arriving from elsewhere just to work, meet, or run an errand.
Laundromats that mostly receive shirts, pants and office clothes.
More cafés, prepared food, delivery, gyms, convenience stores and pet services.
And the way people move also changes.
The same people no longer arrive, for the same reasons, at the same hours, or toward the same destinations.
- Workers arrive in the morning.
- Suppliers show up.
- People arrive just for a meeting.
- Restaurant demand rises at noon.
- Flows shift again in the afternoon.
And when an area's routine changes, so does the demand that sustains its assets.
What starts to change:
- commercial formats
- services
- consumption hours
- logistics
- mobility
- the uses that can gain or lose value.
That's why, after many years evaluating locations, I care less and less about knowing only how many people live there.
I care about understanding how that population actually functions during the day.
Because an area doesn't change simply because we build more square meters.
It changes when the routine of those who live, work and pass through it changes.
And there's a contradiction I notice often:
Urban intensity changes, but the street often doesn't.
- The same sidewalk that used to serve a neighborhood of houses now receives residents, workers, delivery riders, customers and visitors.
- The same intersections.
- The same loading and unloading zones.
- The same public space.
Only now the number and type of users are completely different.
For those of us who invest, develop, design or operate businesses within a city, this should matter to us much more than it seems to.
Because:
When the routine changes, consumption changes. When consumption changes, demand changes. And when demand changes, the value of the location starts to change.
That's why, when I analyze an area today, I try to answer four questions:
- Who is actually arriving?
- How is the way they live, work, move and consume changing?
- What new needs is that change generating?
- What demand is emerging before the market has finished recognizing it?
For me, that last question is where the opportunity starts to appear.
Because many times the next interesting investment doesn't yet have a building, a storefront, or a project.
First it appears as a change in behavior that few people are watching.
And maybe that's why it's no longer enough to ask how much an area is growing.
We need to understand who is using it, how their routine is changing, and what they'll start needing next.
